петък, 21 октомври 2016 г.

Greg Blotnick's Columbia Business School website for Cluster X 2014 Alumni - email greg.blotnick at gmail dot com. Other links and contact info below:

HELLO!  US Futures are blended this AM as Revenue continue to move (INTC getting clobbered) and China GDP on goal with 6.7% progress.   Euro Market segments are red generally, with the DAX off 10bp as only Consumer Discretionary seems to be well bet in Germany.   Italy is outperforming on Monte Paschi headers - really the only exchange in the renewable.   UK is getting strike for 10bp as UK Contractors under pressure on Travis Perkins and Consumer from Reckitt's #s.  Quantities across European countries are light, with most echanges 10-20% below Style.   Pretty Quiet in Asia right away, Hong Kong off 40bp - Shanghai shut chiseled as weakness in Insurance providers off China Life #s weighed - Nikkei shut just under 17k as Staples appreciated the weaker Yen - Aussie climbed 40bp on the heels of an $11B Merger header, while Philippines +2% continue steadily to outperform on optimism over Chief executive Duerte's China visit

The Buck is backing off 7month peaks as Fed fund futures around a 65% probability of a move, down from 70% pre CPI yesterday.  The Euro is a lttle bit weaker before ECB tomorrow - while $/Y is breaking lower quicker as headers say BOJ "No Additional Easing" move.   THE UNITED STATES 10YY acquired a test and bounce off of the 200dma over night as Investors devote for the Saudi Connection Package.  Metals are mixed, with Yellow metal enjoying the falling $, while Nickel gets whacked for 1%+.  WTI has shot back again above $51 as the Saudi petrol minister calls a finish to price 'downturn' and an enormous draw in API inventories support WTI into expirytomorrow.   Natty gas is getting whacked for almost 2% tho.   Softs are weak across the board.

We have much slate of Catalysts today, with Housing Begins and Building Permits for September along with Weekly Jobless Boasts at 8:30 - Fed's Williams Speaks in New Jersey at 8:45.  At 9:50 we get the lender of England Bond-Buying Procedure Results, prior to the Standard bank of Canada Rate Decision at 10 just.  10:30 brings that DOE data for Crude.   At 1:30 Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Fort Worth, before the Federal Reserve Releases the Beige Booklet at 2 just.   Heavy Earnings Post-Close, with AXP, EBAY, LRCX, LSTR, MAT, SLM, and XLNX amongst others after the close.  7:45 tonight at, Fed's Dudley Speaks on NYC Economic Record in NY - at 9pm we've the Final Question between Hillary and Donald.


Chinese GDP 6.7% yoy 3Q toned vs Q2. We revise GDP expansion to 2016e 6.7% yoy (was 6.4%) & 2017e 6.6% yoy (was 6.5%). We lift CPI inflation 2016e  2.0% yoy (was 1.8%) & 2017e 1.6% yoy (was1.3%). China's Sept money & credit data > expectations. IP growth 6.1% yoy in Sept < expected vs 6.3% in August. Tighter policy to restrain property buys & mortgage loaning roll away in middle Sept-Oct - expect weaker forward property sales & investment expansion. Our view is no economic easing in 2016/2017 in China aside from weakening of the currency. Maintain Brief RMB Container bias - just lately modified our CNY 7.25 & CNH 7.30 forecasts lower next time. BAML Western european China Container MLEICHEX = strong website link with China FISCAL CONDITIONS Index. CRB location organic industrials = 0.91 correlation to MSCI EM. BUYS: TECK, ANGLO, BHP, GLENCORE. Jason Fairclough made a 3rd group of double digit EBITDA updates just lately. Timna Tanners initiated on Teck with buy, 54% exposed to met coal. 10:30AM ET satisfied coal call today

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